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Research links 'death rates rise' with arrival of junior doctors

Researchers say they have found a small but statistically significant increase in the number of patients who die each year when junior doctors start work.

A research team from the Imperial College London looked at 300,000 emergency patients admitted to English hospitals between 2000 to 2008. They compared death rates between the first week of August when new doctors arrive, and the previous week in July. They found that the August patients were 6% more likely to die. The researchers stressed they were unable to draw firm conclusions about the reasons for the increase, but that it was significant, if small.

The “killing season”

The period when an influx of newly qualified doctors enters the wards has sometimes been dubbed the "killing season", but studies to establish whether there is any truth to this have been inconclusive.

The differences were most pronounced among medical patients - those not requiring surgery and not suffering from cancer. For this group, death rates increased by 8%.

"Our study does not mean that people should avoid going into hospital that week. This is a relatively small difference in mortality rates, and the numbers of excess deaths are very low," said Dr Paul Aylin, from the Dr Foster Unit at Imperial College. “It's too early to say what might be causing it. It might simply be the result of differences between the patients who were admitted."

But the report notes that if these differences are due to the changeover of hospital staff, "then this has potential implications not only for patient care, but for NHS management approaches to delivering safe care.”

A spokesperson for the Department of Health said: "Patients should be reassured that junior doctors undergo rigorous training and they undertake direct clinical care in areas where they have been trained and assessed as meeting the required competency. "Local hospitals must ensure that they responsibly manage the introduction of new junior doctors each August by providing appropriate senior cover and supervision."

Specialist medical negligence lawyer Susan Brown from Reading law firm Boyes Turner said: “It is interesting to note the recent research which has found a small but significant increase in patient deaths following admissions to A&E in August when junior doctors start work. It would be even more interesting to know the extent to which patient's prognosis is worsened during this period, but clearly this would be very difficult to assess.

At Boyes Turner our medical negligence team deals with a number of claims involving admissions to A&E where there have been delays in the diagnosis and treatment of various injuries and conditions leading to patients suffering ongoing and permanent injury, which would have been avoided with appropriate care."

If you have been affected by any kind of hospital staff negligence contact our specialist medical negligence lawyers who can help you make a claim for compensation.


Consistent with our policy when giving comment and advice on a non-specific basis, we cannot assume legal responsibility for the accuracy of any particular statement. In the case of specific problems we recommend that professional advice be sought.

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